Youth Flee Republican Camp

Here's an important and noteworthy graphic to show trends in the youth vote over the last few elections:

Greg Mankiw's Blog: The Youth Vote and the GOP

While younger people have been marginally to the left since 2000, this last election was a complete blow-out in this demographic.

Greg sees a trend in a fairly non-representative sample of students:

These particular students told me they preferred the lower tax, more limited government, freer trade views of McCain, but they were voting for Obama on the basis of foreign policy and especially social issues like abortion. The choice of a social conservative like Palin as veep really turned them off McCain.

I don't think this phenomenon is limited to Harvard undergrads. My own perspective as a 26-year old card-carrying Republican who just voted for Obama is the same - and its the same I'm hearing from my other friends who tend to be conservative on fiscal issues and libertarian on social issues. Its not just about abortion and marginal tax rates either, its other social issues like anti-gay marriage amendments, the (increasingly-global) war on drugs, and the war on terror that have driven us running and screaming from the Republican party.

We're optimistic about the future - we have more faith in our neighbors than we have in our representatives. So, the tactics of fear and xenophobia are not just ineffective, they have a repelling effect on our oddly libertarian worldview.

In the future, a socially liberal and fiscally conservative party will have a good chance to dominant popular opinion. In the meantime, we are likely to be disappointed at all the hope for change we've naively placed in Obama and Biden.

McCain and Hillary Dominate Super Tuesday

...and the blogosphere reels in defeat - yet again

Bad news bloggers! Hillary won. McCain won.

This means the pulse of the internet isn't swaying the voting booth yet. The influence might not play out until the general election, but the only ones who could possibly get excited about a McCain - Hillary matchup are the diehard partisan hacks who could care less what new media thinks about it all.

Wow, what a disappointing day.


FoxNews is reporting right now even that Republicans want a more conservative candidate.

I'm not exactly sure how McCain pulled it off or how he's drawing in independent voter support. I hear people respect his honesty, but he's so pessimistic that I'd rather hear a different honest plan. I know America is in a tough spot, but he doesn't have a message of hard work and overcoming those obstacles, he seems resigned to defeat, resigned to more wars, and ready to capitulate in commerce.

Romney is trying to push the "positive" campaign, but his lines sound like tired cliches.

Huckabee of course, just won't give up. Ron Paul is hanging in, but any hopes of a brokered convention were voted out on Super Tuesday.

The Election of Change Promises More of the Same

The more I hear Obama and Hillary talking about change, the more cynical I become about politics. Sure, having a woman or a minority would be a superficial change from the image of what we expect a president to be, but how much change will they accomplish when they take money from the same corporations that they claim to stand up against?

The donations are open records, and so are the candidates' legislative records: And there's a similar pattern of funneling big bucks to these corporate donors among all of the so-called front-runners. In fact, its the two who use the "change" theme so effectively that have been the best at collecting money from those who want to preserve the status quo.

Basically, running a mainstream political campaign today is just being cheered to rant against the companies that pay your bills. If that's the case, I'll cut these oil, pharmaceutical, and weapons manufacturers a deal: I'll rant against you for the low low price of only $10,000.

I'll be waiting by my email for offers, but I have a funny feeling they're only hiring critics with the power to spend tax money.

Hillary Campaigning in Arizona Amid MLK Controversy

Hillary seems to be actively using race to ... win votes? I'm not so sure. Her latest stunts in Arizona might be causing a bit of a backlash. While touring Hispanic neighborhoods, she compared the housing market to chips and guacamole. I wish I was kidding, but I'm not.

Of course, no Clinton campaign stunt is complete without huge promises, and today she promises that "No woman is illegal." Is Hillary Clinton trying to cover the politically unpopular policy of amnesty with feminism?

Of course, this is all happening in the wake of comments that Barack Obama characterized as racially insensitive.

It almost seems like Hillary's across-the-board pandering and "folksy" racial humor is starting to catch up with her...

Race Issues Working Against Ron Paul, Hillary Clinton

Typically in America, one would expect issues of race to weigh against minorities in a popularity contest like politics. In the 2008 primary election season, quite the opposite phenomenon is developing. Just a few have dared to make an issue out of Obama's race, and it doesn't seem to work as he's staying near the lead and avoiding any negative coverage in the press. The ones who are currently suffering scrutiny over the issue are Hillary Clinton and Ron Paul.

Vast right-wing conspiracy not against Clinton, but Paul

So, is Ron Paul a racist, or a horrible staff manager? Either one is a good enough reason for me that he should not be president, but I'll be voting for him anyway because his message of constitutional federalism and military non-intervention makes a lot more sense than the socialist spending and empire building that the country can no longer afford.

But at some point, to protect this message, we have to distance ourselves from those who would undermine it by giving it a bad name or a negative association.

Giuliani is a Popular Guy - To Make Fun of

One of the best ways to deal with the horror of politics is to insult the living hell out of those politicians who drive you crazy. This is why I love Death by 1000 Papercuts:

DBKP - Worldwide Leader in Weird: Iowa's Forgotten Man: Rudy Giuliani Parodies

Special thanks to Rudy Giuliani as well for his early implosion and easily satirized 9-11 campaign.

Free speech is fun, if you're doing it right.

Obama's Strong Win

pygalgia: Analyzing the First Inning

Pyalgia has a good analysis of the Iowa results (maybe he should be a pundit or something - oh wait, he is, thank god for the blog-o-sphere).

I am impressed and also somewhat excited about Obama's victory, even as I personally identify as small government conservative. Why? Well, the Republican party isn't offering fiscal restraint or personal liberty anymore - its just about religion and war. Sorry, I'm not very interested in that.

The demographic breakdowns that Pygalgia explains are very telling to the sources of Obama's support. Many candidates get noticed because of their appeal to the youth vote (Dean, Ron Paul, Kucinich & others come to mind), but Obama has actually managed to get the younger voters to show up.

Does Obama really represent change? Maybe not in a substantive policy sense. His advisors and campaign staff are mostly comprised of ex-Clinton era establishment Democrats, and he shares a lot of corporate sponsorship with Hillary. But, at the very least, he's willing to put his proposals up for scrutiny and admit that his first plan may not be the best one. He's not running on a platform of regulating personal behavior (cough, Huckabee, cough), and he is one of the only candidates to admit the fact that the first thing any medical reform in this country needs to focus on is reducing costs

Working to cut costs in healthcare is more "conservative" than Bush's $100 billion / year pharmaceutical subsidy. But I remain skeptical, will he really stand up to the lawyers, insurers, and FDA?